Publication basée sur des résultats du projet DECLIC.

Résumé en anglais

Climate policies as a hedge against the uncertainty on future oil supply

Despite the inextricable link between oil scarcity and climate change, the interplay between these two issues is paradoxically an underworked area. This Climatic Change Letter uses a global energy-economy model to address the link between future oil supply and climate change and assesses in a common framework both the costs of climate policies and oil scarcity.
It shows that, in the context of a limited and uncertain amount of ultimately recoverable oil resources, climate policies reduce the world vulnerability to peak oil. Climate policies, therefore, appear as a hedging strategy against the uncertainty on oil resources, in addition to their main aim of avoiding dangerous climate change. This co-bene-fit is estimated at the net present value of US$11,500 billion. Eventually, reducing the risk of future economic losses due to oil scarcity may appear as a significant side-benefit of climate policies to many decision-makers.